4 hours ago
1
General Dan Caine confirmed that 13 ships have turned around due to the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, part of the US strategy to economically pressure Iran. The market for UK warships entering the Strait by April 30 sits at 6.5% YES.
Market reaction
The report of ships turning back has not moved expectations for UK warships transiting the Strait. The April 30 market holds at 6.5% YES, unchanged from yesterday after a modest rise from 8% over the week. The cost to move this market 5 points is $581, meaning any significant news could shift odds quickly.
For the US escorts market, odds are at 19.5% YES, down from 24% a week ago. The blockade’s effectiveness without escorts could explain the decline. The largest recent move was a 1-point spike, showing traders are cautious about the US needing to escort ships.
Why it matters
The 13 ships turning back suggests the blockade is deterring passage without direct military engagement. For traders, the market presents a contrarian opportunity: a YES share in the US escorts market at 22.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 4.44x return. That bet requires believing tension will force US intervention within 14 days.
What to watch
CENTCOM updates, any signs of escalation from the IRGC that might force escorts, and statements from UK defense officials on warship deployment decisions.
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