381 days after the high: why the Bitcoin cycle is running differently this time

The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry a high degree of risk. Always conduct your own research.Context: the last three cycle highs came 526, 548 and 534 days after the respective halving, and the high of October 2025 fits that series exactly. What no longer fits is the depth of the fall: at 33 percent below the record, Bitcoin stands markedly better on the same cycle day than in the three cycles before, where it was 72 to 80 percent.The Bitcoin cycle is the observation that the price has moved in a recurring rhythm since 2012: roughly every four years the reward for miners halves, a good eighteen months later a record follows, and after that comes a deep slump. Ask today whether that rhythm still holds and you get two opposing answers. Both can be checked with numbers. The documented figures: the last three cycle highs arrived 526, 548 and 534 days after the respective halving, so within three weeks of each other, and the high of October 6, 2025 fits that pattern exactly. Equally documented is that the swing gets smaller from cycle to cycle. Our assessment follows further...