A $29B private exodus from US bonds is threatening Bitcoin’s next big rally

Foreign buyers returned to U.S. Treasury bills in July 2026, but the rebound stopped short of a broad vote of confidence in longer-dated government debt. For Bitcoin, that distinction matters because long-term Treasury yields remain a benchmark for borrowing costs and the returns available on safer assets.Foreign residents bought a net $38.8 billion of bills after selling $29 billion in June, according to the Treasury Department's July release. Treasury International Capital, or TIC, data track cross-border portfolio transactions and banking flows. The split beneath the bill reversal was sharper: private foreign investors bought $45 billion of bills while selling $29.1 billion of Treasury notes and bonds. Foreign official institutions moved the other way, selling $6.3 billion of bills and buying $25.5 billion of notes and bonds.That official demand offset most of the private long-duration selling, leaving the combined notes-and-bonds flow slightly negative. It also explains why the $83.7 billion headline TIC inflow did not translate into an equally strong long-term picture. After U.S. purchases of foreign securities and other adjustments, net foreign acquisition of all long-term se...