6 hours ago
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Economist Timothy Peterson says Bitcoin may have strong odds of rising over the next 10 months.
Summary
- Economist Timothy Peterson says Bitcoin has an 88% chance of trading higher in 10 months, based on a cycle metric tracking positive months over the past 24 months.
- His model, using data back to 2011, implies an average forward return of 82%, pointing to a potential price near $122,000.
- The outlook sparked mixed reactions, with some calling it a strong historical signal and others warning that Bitcoin may not follow past averages.
Timothy Peterson’s model points to $122K Bitcoin
In a post on X, he noted that 50% of the past 24 months have closed positively for Bitcoin (BTC). Based on historical data going back to 2011, that reading implies an 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now.
Peterson estimates the average forward return at exp(60%) − 1, or about 82%. That would translate to a BTC price near $122,000 over the next 10 months, based on current levels.
He described the indicator as an informal cycle tool. It measures frequency, not magnitude. In other words, it counts how many months were positive, not how large the gains were.
This is an informal metric I use to track Bitcoin cycles. It counts the number of positive months out of the past 24.
This metric measures frequency, not magnitude. So Bitcoin could trend sideways for months and this metric could still go down. But it is still very useful for… pic.twitter.com/D4sbDoNcqL
Bitcoin could move sideways for months and the metric could still fall. Even so, Peterson says it has helped identify inflection points in past cycles.
A chart shared with the post shows that stronger readings in positive-month frequency have historically aligned with higher forward returns.
Nevertheless, the posts drew divided reactions from users on X.
One user called it a “rare confluence of historical data,” arguing the setup points to a major recovery by the end of 2026. The 82% expected return, they said, remains a guiding signal for long-term investors.
Others were more cautious. One user wrote “Bitcoin doesn’t give a damn about historical averages.”
English (US) · 