Analysts warn Meta’s Muse could threaten Apple’s $10B revenue stream

Apple has spent years defending its App Store toll booth against regulators, developers and rivals. Now the newest challenger is not a lawsuit but a chatbot that books flights. Meta’s personal AI agent, Muse, may cut into Apple’s subscription revenue by up to $10 billion, according to CNBC’s reporting. The concern is that the agent could reroute app store payments and pull developer engagement away from Apple’s ecosystem. What Bank of America is worried about The warning gained traction through an investor note dated September 29, 2026, from Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan. His argument centers on where user activity actually begins. Mohan cautioned that AI agents like Muse could redirect what he described as: “discovery, referral, and transaction initiation” Those three steps are the front door to commerce on a smartphone. If someone asks an AI agent to find, compare and buy something, they may never open the app where Apple would normally collect its cut. That cut matters. Apple typically takes a 30% commission on App Store transactions, a structure that has long made its services segment one of the company’s most reliable profit engines. Investors took the note seriously. Ap...