Anthropic’s inference business could hit 88% margins, SemiAnalysis estimates

In a report published in early October 2026, SemiAnalysis estimated that Anthropic’s inference business could achieve margins as high as 88% once compute costs are accounted for. Where the money actually comes from Roughly 75-85% of Anthropic’s annual recurring revenue comes from API services, which means developers and businesses paying per use. API margins alone are estimated to exceed 80%, according to the research. Consumer subscriptions make up around 10% of revenue but consume more than 40% of inference compute, per the findings. Yet subscriptions still reportedly yield compute margins of approximately 50%. Subscription users get over four times more compute per dollar than API buyers, and on certain workloads the tiers may deliver up to five times the API value compared to OpenAI. Subscriptions reduce blended revenue per megawatt by approximately $36 million, according to the analysis, but do not turn negative on a gross-margin basis under realistic utilization conditions. From deep red to mid-60s Anthropic’s overall gross margins sat at negative 94% in 2024, per the research. By mid-2026, those margins had climbed into the mid-60% range. The improvement is attributed to opt...