Anthropic updates labor impact chart in new AI economic scenarios report

Anthropic has updated a labor impact chart as part of a new report called “Economic Scenarios.” The report lays out three possible futures for the US economy by 2030, each shaped by how fast and how far AI spreads. Three roads to 2030 Anthropic labels its scenarios modest, substantial, and extreme. Each one is measured against a baseline US economy with no AI in the picture. Under the modest scenario, 2030 US GDP lands at $34.1 trillion, a 1.6% bump over that baseline. The substantial scenario pushes GDP to $36.3 trillion, an 8.3% gain. The extreme scenario sees GDP reach $44.4 trillion, a 32.4% jump over the no-AI baseline. The bill for knowledge workers In the extreme case, Anthropic’s model suggests knowledge-worker wages could fall by about 11.5%. Unemployment for that group could climb to around 17.9%. Overall unemployment in that scenario could surge to 11.9%, according to the report. The report also projects a shift in how national income is divided. Labor’s share of income is predicted to drop from about 60% to 45.2% in the extreme case. What regular Americans expect Anthropic paired the modeling with a survey of more than 10,000 US adults about their expectations for AI. T...