August CPI Drives Fed Hike Prediction Market Odds to 81.3%

Fed hike prediction market odds ease off post-CPI peak. Cross-venue probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in September peaked near 81% in the 24 hours after the Sept. 11 inflation release and has since eased slightly. As of Sept. 14, Kalshi’s “Fed decision in September?” market prices a quarter-point hike at 78%, down 2 points on the day, with “Fed maintains rate” at 21% and a larger-than-25bp hike at 2%. Fed decision in September? Kalshi Cumulative volume has continued to build. Polymarket’s global “Fed Decision in September?” market has traded roughly $148.5 million since it launched on May 13, while Kalshi’s Fed decision market shows about $68.2 million. This put the combined volume across the two venues above $215 million, well ahead of the $192.6 million figure reported over the weekend. The repricing sets up the Federal Open Market Committee’s Sept. 15–16 meeting, which concludes Wednesday with the policy statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. It is also a Summary of Economic Projections meeting, so an updated dot plot lands alongside the decision. Make Your Prediction With $25 Free on KalshiSeptember Fed Hike Stays the Base Case as Prediction...