Bank of America Global Research forecasts BOE rate hikes in November 2026 and February 2027

Bank of America Global Research expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in both November 2026 and February 2027. The forecast places BofA alongside J.P. Morgan, Barclays, and UBS, all of which have projected a similar path for the BOE as persistent inflation risks cloud the UK’s economic outlook. Markets appear to agree, at least partially. LSEG data shows a 63% probability priced in for a BOE rate hike at the November 2026 meeting. A forecast that keeps shifting The current call is notable because BofA itself abandoned rate hike predictions just months ago. Back on June 25, the bank revised its 2026 BOE outlook, scrapping its earlier projection for two hikes and instead forecasting that the central bank would hold rates steady at 3.75% for all of 2026. At that point, BofA saw only a single 25-basis-point cut arriving in November 2027. The June revision made sense in context. UK inflation had come in at 2.8% in May, below economists’ expectations heading into the BOE’s June meeting. Energy prices were declining. But the story changed over the summer. By mid-September 2026, the inflation picture had shifted enough that major brokerages started pencilin...