Bitcoin bull market underway, Arthur Hayes says

Bitcoin traded above $80,000 on Aug. 25 as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argued that expanded U.S. Treasury bond buybacks marked the beginning of a new bull market. Summary Treasury doubled long-end buyback caps to at least $4 billion per operation beginning September 9, 2026. Bitcoin rallied above $80,000 after announcement, though causation between both events remains unproven by officials. Hayes called Bitcoin bull market underway and said Maelstrom reached maximum risk portfolio exposure levels. Treasury projects $739 billion in third-quarter borrowing and a $950 billion September-end cash balance under assumptions. New York Fed plans $10 billion reserve management purchases, separately targeting ample banking reserves this month. Hayes presented the argument in his Aug. 25 essay, Same Same But Different. He linked Bitcoin’s recent rally to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s decision to increase purchases of longer-dated government securities. The Treasury confirmed on Aug. 19 that it would at least double the maximum size of certain long-end liquidity-support buybacks. The limit will rise from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation between Sept. 9 and Nov. 4. Hayes d...