Bitcoin Cycle Isn’t Over: Realized Price Bands Show Holder Stress Above Key Levels

Bitcoin saw a sharp pullback this week, dropping below the $92,500 mark after failing to hold above $95,500. While the decline reignited bear market fears across crypto, bulls are now trying to stabilize price and defend the current range before selling pressure accelerates further. The move came as markets reacted to renewed macro uncertainty, with tariff headlines out of Europe adding fresh risk-off pressure across global assets.

The latest narrative centers on potential EU retaliatory measures against the United States, including tariffs and trade restrictions aimed at countering political threats tied to NATO tensions. Even without immediate implementation, the headlines were enough to tighten liquidity and trigger fast deleveraging, pushing Bitcoin lower as traders reduced risk exposure.

Despite the drop, analyst MorenoDV argues the market is not collapsing into a cycle end, but instead entering a phase of “risk redistribution.” His view is based on Bitcoin’s Realized Price by UTXO age bands, a framework that helps map where psychological pressure is building across different holder groups. Rather than tracking trend direction, the metric highlights which cohorts are comfortable, which are underwater, and where latent selling pressure could emerge.

In MorenoDV’s view, Bitcoin is rotating stress between cohorts, not breaking structurally.

Bitcoin’s current drawdown is not creating uniform stress across the market. Instead, pressure is building unevenly across different holder cohorts, based on their realized price levels. In the current setup, spot price sits near $95,583, while the 1w–1m cohort realized price is $89,255 and the 1m–3m cohort is $93,504.

Bitcoin Realized Price UTXO Age Bands | Source: CryptoQuant

That means newer short-term holders are still in profit, which is an important stabilizing factor. When the most recent buyers are rewarded rather than punished, downside follow-through tends to weaken, because fear does not compound at the margin.

However, the pressure is concentrated in older short-term cohorts. The 3m–6m realized price stands at $114,808, and the 6m–12m cohort sits near $100,748, placing both groups underwater. This suggests Bitcoin has not been aggressively redistributed at lower levels, since a large portion of mid-term holders remains trapped above spot. The market is showing discomfort, but not capitulation, with losses being absorbed through patience rather than forced selling.

If Bitcoin begins reclaiming the 6m–12m realized price, that cohort’s stress could ease quickly. Still, sustainability depends on psychology. Mid-term holders must view this phase as a temporary drawdown, not a structural breakdown. If that belief breaks, selling pressure can appear even stronger.

Bitcoin Slides Below Key Support As Bulls Defend the Range

Bitcoin is under pressure again after failing to hold above the mid-$95,000 zone, with price now trading near $93,000. The chart shows a sharp rejection from the recent local high, followed by a clean move lower that has erased a large portion of the latest rebound. This shift suggests that upside momentum remains fragile, even after the market briefly reclaimed higher levels earlier in January.

BTC testing pivotal level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

From a structure perspective, BTC is now back inside the broader consolidation range that formed after the late November sell-off. The recent bounce looked constructive at first, but the inability to sustain follow-through above resistance has brought sellers back into control. Volume has picked up on the decline, which typically reflects stronger conviction compared to slow pullbacks.

Bitcoin is also trading below its major moving averages on this timeframe, reinforcing the idea that the broader trend remains heavy until bulls reclaim key levels. In the near term, the market must hold support in the low-$92,000 to $93,000 region to avoid another liquidation-driven drop.

If bulls can stabilize price here, BTC may attempt another push toward $95,000. However, repeated rejections increase the risk of a deeper breakdown.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com