Bitcoin downside looks limited above $76,350: Bitfinex analysts

Bitcoin has held between $76,500 and $79,500 for five trading days as its $76,350 active-investor cost basis has absorbed selling after a 24.9% August gain. Summary Bitcoin’s True Market Mean stands at $76,350, just below the current trading range. Long-term holder SOPR has stayed near breakeven for nine sessions, indicating limited profit-taking. September options place downside protection between $68,000 and $75,000, while calls favor a move above $80,000. Strategy bought 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million as spot Bitcoin ETF demand cooled. Bitfinex analysts said in a Sept. 2 Alpha report that Bitcoin’s position above the True Market Mean reduces the risk of a deep pullback, even though September has produced an average loss of 2.95% since 2013. The True Market Mean, which measures the average cost basis of active Bitcoin investors, stood at $76,350 when the report was published. Bitcoin had remained inside a 3% range between $76,500 and $79,500 since Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish message at Jackson Hole on Aug. 28. Selling has appeared around the upper end of the range, but buyers have prevented Bitcoin from closing decisively below the on-chain cost basis. Bit...