Bitcoin faces Fed test on Sept. 16 as core inflation drops to 3%

The Federal Reserve’s next policy decision lands on September 16, and it’s shaping up to be the most consequential FOMC meeting for risk assets in over a year. Core CPI has cooled from 4.76% to roughly 3% territory, but markets aren’t celebrating. Instead, they’re pricing in something most investors didn’t expect to see again this cycle: a rate hike. Fed funds futures currently imply a 60-66% probability of a 25 basis point increase at the September meeting. If that materializes, it would mark the first hike since 2023, a move that could send shockwaves through Bitcoin and the broader crypto market at a particularly fragile moment. The inflation picture looks better, but not good enough July’s core CPI reading came in at 2.5% year-over-year, ticking down from 2.59% in June. Headline CPI sits around 3.4%, with easing pressures in energy and services doing most of the heavy lifting. The current federal funds target range sits at 3.50%-3.75%, held steady after the July 28-29 meeting on a 9-3 vote. Those three dissents are worth noting. A split committee heading into September suggests the debate inside the Eccles Building is genuinely live, not a foregone conclusion dressed up as deli...