Bitcoin Has Erased Its 2025 Gains and Lost 4 Years of Support — Is a Bear Market Starting?

4 days ago 4

Key Highlights:

Bitcoin’s drop below its 50-week average signals rare significant change.
Unclosed CME futures gap may attract price for a short-term rebound.
Extreme fear grips crypto markets amidst historic price declines.

Bitcoin has wiped out all of its 2025 price gains and briefly dipped below $90,000, returning to the price level seen at the start of the year. More importantly for bullish investors, the leading cryptocurrency recently lost the key 50-week moving average support it had held for four years.

This moving average currently stands near $102,843, and breaking below it has historically signaled the start of a bear market, an event only seen four times before in Bitcoin’s history.

Trend change or temporary correction?

Traders remain split. Some believe the bull market is over, while others search for signs of a reversal. Large buy orders between $88,500 and $92,000, placed by whales on Binance, signal potential support at these levels.

Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe remains cautiously optimistic, noting that if Bitcoin forms a higher low after reaching weekend lows, a significant liquidation of bearish positions could trigger a rebound.

The CME futures gap as a price magnet

One technical focus is the unclosed gap in CME Bitcoin futures from April, currently between $91,800 and $92,700. These gaps tend to attract price action back to them, often “closing” over weeks or months.

Trader Hardy advises preparing for a dip to fill this gap before an expected bounce, describing it as a classic pattern driven by whale orders. QCP Capital also highlights the $92,000 zone, noting its importance as a likely bounce point due to this unfilled gap.

Historical support lost, market sentiment falls

Losing the 50-week moving average is rare and significant. Historically, each breach of this support has preceded a bear market lasting 1-2 years. The last weekly close below this average was in March 2023.

Adding to worries, the exponential moving average (EMA) combined with this support has not held since Bitcoin traded around $22,000. Analyst Jelle calls the trend “officially lost.”

Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies have diverged from broader markets: US stock futures remained calm despite crypto losses, gold prices rose above $4,100/oz, and yields increased.

Bitcoin’s correlation with Nasdaq tech stocks has hit near-record highs, further signaling intertwined risk sentiments.

The crypto community’s Fear and Greed Index dropped to 10/100, indicating extreme fear unseen since early 2025. This contrasts sharply with a reading of 74 just six weeks prior.

Many compare the current atmosphere to the 2022 FTX collapse period. Markets now await US employment data, missing during the government shutdown, as confidence wanes over upcoming Fed interest rate moves.

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