Bitcoin may gain if AI bubble bursts, Hayes says

BitMEX cofounder Arthur Hayes published a new essay, “Situationship,” on Aug. 4, 2026, arguing that the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom could end as a credit crisis rather than a dot com style equity collapse. Summary Hayes argues AI infrastructure resembles leveraged real estate, making a future downturn a credit crisis. U.S. hyperscalers continue raising capital spending as cloud demand and artificial intelligence workloads expand rapidly. Alphabet raised 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $195 billion to $205 billion amid demand growth. Federal Reserve officials held rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, while announcing no AI rescue program. Bitcoin traded near $64,337, but Hayes’s essay provided no verified immediate market catalyst for traders. Hayes framed data centers as leveraged real estate containing computing equipment that can lose economic value as newer chips become more efficient. Hayes said an eventual slowdown in data center construction could expose weak borrowers and financiers, prompting government intervention and broader monetary easing. He believes the resulting liquidity could support a renewed Bitcoin bull market. However, the scenario remains his per...