Bitcoin Price Analysis: All Signs Point to BTC Cooling Off After Recent Rally

Bitcoin is showing signs of exhaustion after reaching a key resistance level near $106K. The rally that began in mid-April has pushed prices into overbought territory on higher timeframes, and momentum appears to be slowing.

While the broader trend remains bullish, short-term consolidation or even a local pullback wouldn’t be surprising given current technical conditions and on-chain behavior.

The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, BTC has surged from the $90K breakout level, clearing major resistance zones around $98K and approaching a key supply area around the $106K mark. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which was trending at overbought levels, is now pulling back, reflecting early weakness.

Moreover, the price remains well above the 100- and 200-day moving averages, both located around the $90K zone, suggesting that the macro trend is intact. However, this latest impulsive move may need a breather, especially if buyers fail to push through the $109K region.

The 4-Hour Chart

Zooming into the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin formed a steep ascending structure before facing resistance just below the $109K level. The RSI has also sharply cooled off from above 75 to the low 50s, hinting at a loss of bullish momentum.

For now, the $101K–$102K zone is acting as a short-term support, but if this level breaks cleanly, the next major support rests near the $97K–$98K range. A decisive reclaim of $104K–$105K would invalidate any immediate bearish thesis and open the door toward $109K and beyond.

On-chain Analysis

Exchange Reserve

On-chain data supports the cooling sentiment. Bitcoin exchange reserves continue to decline, reflecting low sell-side pressure from long-term holders, which is a bullish backdrop over time.

However, the rate of decline has stabilized in recent weeks, showing no acceleration despite the price surge. This means that although fewer coins are moving to exchanges, fresh inflows of demand may also be tapering off for now. The market is likely waiting for new catalysts to drive the next leg higher.