Bitcoin Price Analysis: Push to $100K Next for BTC or Is the Rally Running Out of Steam?

Bitcoin is still stuck in a corrective phase, but the structure remains controlled rather than impulsively bearish. The price is reacting cleanly to higher-timeframe levels while volatility has compressed, which usually precedes expansion.

The key point here is that this is not distribution yet; it’s digestion. How BTC behaves around the current resistance will define whether this move is just another lower high or the start of a broader continuation.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, the asset is trading below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which sit inside a clear resistance zone. This area has already acted as a supply flip multiple times, so rejection here is technically valid.

However, the daily structure is still holding higher lows from the November bottom, meaning sellers have not regained full control. As long as the price holds above the higher-low base and does not lose the demand zone below, this remains a corrective range rather than a trend reversal.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows a rising wedge / ascending corrective structure pushing into resistance. The price has just tagged the local supply and stalled, while RSI also pushed into the overbought territory and is pulling back.

The market is balanced here: a strong breakout above the horizontal resistance level at $95K and the higher boundary of the wedge pattern would open room toward the next daily supply zone just above $100K. On the other hand, a rejection will cause the price to rotate back inside the pattern and potentially the lower range support. Therefore, the mid-term price action of BTC heavily depends on its reaction to the current level.

Sentiment Analysis

Futures data shows average order size mostly belonging to retail traders compared to last year, indicating larger players are mostly inactive. Retail participation has picked up near resistance, which increases the risk of short-term fakeouts. This combination usually leads to choppy price action rather than immediate continuation.

Overall sentiment is cautiously bullish but crowded and retail-driven near highs. This means that BTC likely needs either a clean breakout with volume from large players or a reset lower to shake weak hands before the next directional move occurs.