Bitcoin price loses key multiyear support trendline: A classic BTC fakeout?

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin is dropping below a critical multiyear trendline support, sparking bear market fears.

• One analyst sees the breakdown as a fakeout, however, suggesting that dips below $100,000 will serve as a buying opportunity.

Bitcoin (BTC) has tumbled more than 13.75% from its record high of $124,500, breaking below its multiyear uptrend support and rattling investors with fears of a deeper correction.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Yet history suggests that such corrections may ultimately trap the bears.

Bitcoin risks plunging toward $80,000 if RSI support weakens

Bitcoin has often rallied along a parabolic support curve in past cycles, using it as the backbone of its bull runs. Temporary dips below that curve were not always fatal, so long as momentum, measured by the relative strength index (RSI), remained intact.

The real trouble historically began when Bitcoin lost both parabola and RSI support simultaneously.

BTC/USD two-week price chart. Source: TradingView

In 2013, that breakdown preceded an 85% crash from about $1,150 to $150. In 2017, the same pattern led to an 84% drop from nearly $20,000 to $3,100.

Most recently, in 2021, Bitcoin’s failure of parabola and RSI support triggered a 77% slide from $69,000 to around $15,500.

In 2025, Bitcoin fell below its multiyear trendline support by late August, but RSI holding above its uptrend keeps recovery hopes alive.

The real test will come if the RSI breaks below its trendline support. Such a move could drag BTC initially toward its 50-week exponential moving average (50-2W EMA) near $80,000 by the end of 2025, mirroring previous price retreats.

Bitcoin’s drop is a fakeout: analysts

Popular crypto analyst BitBull describes the current breakdown as a likely “fakeout.”

Even a capitulation wick below $100,000 would be consistent with Bitcoin’s past playbook of shaking out weak hands before staging a strong recovery, he argues.

BTC/USDT two-week price chart. Source: BitBull/TradingView

In that sense, the $80,000–$100,000 range may be a target for the bears and a potential springboard for the next leg higher.

Market analyst SuperBro echoes this argument, pointing to the Pi Cycle Top model, which has been a reliable signal of Bitcoin’s past cycle peaks.

BTC Pi Cycle top indicator. Source: Glassnode

The indicator is built on two moving averages of Bitcoin’s price: the 111-day simple moving average (111SMA) and twice the 350-day simple moving average (350SMA x 2).

When the faster 111SMA rises to meet and cross above the slower 350SMA x 2, it signals that Bitcoin is extremely overheated. This crossover has historically marked major tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

Related: Bitcoin traders: BTC must close week above $114K to avoid ‘ugly’ correction

At present, no such crossover has occurred, which, according to SuperBro, means Bitcoin has not yet reached its cycle peak. The analyst predicts that BTC’s price will top at $280,000.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.