Bitcoin Price Prediction: How Will BTC Price Move Following Gold's Surge?

Bitcoin price has been under pressure recently, showing a stark contrast to Gold’s record highs. As Bitcoin price enters a new accumulation phase, the debate intensifies: will BTC price break above resistance levels, or is a further crash looming? This article will delve into insights from various analysts to provide a comprehensive outlook on the potential Bitcoin price movements in the near term.

By TradingView - BTCUSD_2024-08-16 (1D)

Bitcoin Struggles Amid Gold’s Surge

By TradingView - XAUUSD_2024-08-16 (All)

Bitcoin price has been trading within a tight range, failing to impress as Gold hits an all-time high of $2,500. The sideways movement of Bitcoin, compared to the strong performance of Gold and equities, has left many market observers concerned. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s inability to rally despite favorable conditions is a significant sign that the cryptocurrency may continue to struggle. However, some other analysts, remain optimistic, suggesting that Bitcoin might follow Gold's lead, albeit with a lag of about three months.

By TradingView - XAUUSD_2024-08-16

Bitcoin Accumulation Phase: A Sign of Hope?

Recent data indicates that Bitcoin has re-entered the accumulation phase, where long-term holders are once again buying up the cryptocurrency. On-chain metrics, such as the Accumulation Trend Score (ATS), show the market shifts back to accumulation, with significant buying occurring at levels between $58,000 and $73,000. Despite the ongoing accumulation, Bitcoin price faces substantial resistance around $61,700, which it must overcome to target a potential rally towards $66,000 by September. Historical patterns post-halving suggest that September could be a bullish month for Bitcoin price, but this is contingent on breaking through current resistance levels.

By TradingView - BTCUSD_2024-08-16 (1M)

Downside Risks: Will Bitcoin Crash Again?

Despite some bullish signals, there are significant downside risks that could push Bitcoin prices lower. The high percentage of long-term holders currently in profit raises the likelihood of profit-taking, which could drive prices down. Technical indicators also point to potential bearish scenarios. Bitcoin price action is currently forming an ascending triangle pattern, typically a bearish continuation signal in a downtrend. If Bitcoin fails to break above its immediate resistance at $59,280, it could trigger a breakdown, potentially sending the price down to $50,000, a key psychological support level.

Can Bitcoin Overcome the Bearish Pressure?

While the risk of a further price decline exists, Bitcoin may still have a chance to rally. If Bitcoin price closes above its 50-4H EMA and breaks the upper trendline of the ascending triangle, it could trigger a bullish reversal with an upside target of around $70,000. This scenario aligns with the broader market outlook that sees Bitcoin lagging behind Gold by a few months. As Gold price has already broken out of its consolidation, some analysts believe Bitcoin price could follow suit, especially if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, making riskier assets like Bitcoin more attractive.

By TradingView - BTCUSD_2024-08-16 (YTD)

Bitcoin price is at a critical juncture, with both bullish and bearish scenarios in play. While accumulation by long-term holders and historical patterns suggest the potential for a recovery, significant resistance levels and bearish technical indicators warn of possible further declines. Investors should remain cautious and closely monitor key levels as the market develops.