Bitcoin Reclaims 50-Week Moving Average for the First Time in Over 10 Months

According to an analyst, the historical odds of a cycle low after a 50-week MA reclaim are 75% and 100% when the Covid crash is excluded. Bitcoin closed a weekly candle above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, Alex Thorn of Galaxy reported on September 21, 2026, after the cryptocurrency climbed back above $81,000. The recovery puts BTC at a historically important technical level, although past cycles offer no guarantee that the June low will hold. Bitcoin Reclaims a Level That Has Capped Previous Rallies Thorn has been tracking the 50-week moving average as a ceiling during bear markets, and in an August research report, he explained that Bitcoin had repeatedly struggled to regain the line during previous downturns. Now, he’s saying that the resistance has finally given way. “BTC CLOSES WEEK ABOVE 50-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE FOR FIRST TIME IN 45 WEEKS,” he wrote. “Regaining the 50w MA has historically served as strong confirmation that bear market lows are ‘in.'” The historical record is notable, but it comes with a qualification. Thorn’s study found that in four of the five completed bear markets that lost the 50-week average, the first weekly close back above i...