Bitcoin’s $2.24 billion Friday options expiry teased a reversal then fell to $76k again

Bitcoin fell into Deribit’s Sept. 11 options expiry, rebounded during the first hour after settlement, then surrendered the move before a two-hour post-expiry window ended.The sequence resembled only part of a pattern documented in a recent peer-reviewed study. Friday’s price path did not complete the reversal, while the study’s high at-the-money open-interest condition could not be matched with public data and its strongest negative-gamma regime was not corroborated.Across Deribit’s BTC perpetual, Coinbase spot and Kraken spot, Bitcoin declined about 0.16% to 0.18% from 07:00 to 08:00 UTC. It then gained about 0.19% to 0.21% by 09:00.The rebound did not hold. From 08:00 to 10:00 UTC, the Deribit perpetual slipped 0.014%, Coinbase fell 0.025% and Kraken lost 0.038%. Bitcoin therefore ended slightly below its expiry-time level on all three venues.What Friday’s expiry showedA PerpFinder market-data snapshot at 06:40 UTC placed the expiring Bitcoin options at about $2.24 billion, comprising roughly $1.40 billion of calls and $844 million of puts. Deribit’s official delivery price was $77,234.Bitcoin fell as low as $76,000 into the Europe afternoon trading session before recovering bac...