Bitcoin’s $85,000 recovery awaits proof that ETF investors kept buying after payrolls

Bitcoin's recovery above $85,000 faces a demand test after a sharp fall in bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike. A new post-payroll study places the strongest burst of forced buying before Friday's jobs report, while Bitcoin retreated after the release.Bitcoin was $85,276 around press time, up 0.83% over 24 hours. The Sunday price remained below the $86,000 area reached before payrolls.For holders tracking Bitcoin's recovery, the gap raises a practical question: who will sustain the recovery after the initial short squeeze? Thursday's ETF inflows provided a buying signal, but incomplete Friday figures leave the industry's response to payrolls unresolved heading into Monday's US session.The squeeze came before payrollsGlassnode's Oct. 3 post-payroll study estimated the probability of an additional quarter-point hike at the Oct. 28 meeting fell from 66% on Sept. 28 to 22% by 15:00 UTC on Oct. 2. The estimate comes from Glassnode's calculations using fed funds futures and the effective federal funds rate.The timing of the strongest forced buying is revealing. Glassnode measured $50 million of short liquidations in ten minutes at 04:20 UTC on Oct. 2, eight hours before the jobs re...