Bitcoin’s midterm slump looks more like its own cycle than election fallout

US midterm elections are 10 days out, and Bitcoin has a track record around them that traders would rather not repeat. In each of the last three midterm cycles, the asset hit a major low shortly after voters went to the polls. A closer look suggests the ballot box may not be the culprit. According to CoinDesk’s analysis, the timing appears more closely tied to Bitcoin’s own market cycles than to anything happening in Washington, especially since technology stocks have not followed the same script. Three midterms, three bottoms The pattern is tidy enough to make anyone suspicious. Bitcoin bottomed in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, each time not long after the preceding midterm vote. The gaps were approximately 71, 38 and 13 days after election day, respectively. Notice the direction: each bottom arrived sooner than the last, as if the market got more impatient every cycle. The fourth quarter of each of those midterm years was rough. Bitcoin posted a negative Q4 return of −16.7% in 2014, −42.16% in 2018 and −14.75% in 2022. The broader post-midterm drawdowns ranged from 27% to 72%. Here is where the election theory starts to wobble. If midterms themselves were driving...