Bitcoin’s SOPR indicator breaks 11-month suppression, signaling potential cycle reversal

One of Bitcoin’s most closely watched on-chain metrics just woke up from an 11-month nap. CryptoQuant reports that the Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, has broken out of a prolonged suppressed state, a development the analytics firm interprets as a potential signal that the market cycle is shifting. For the uninitiated, SOPR measures whether Bitcoin holders are selling their coins at a profit or a loss. When the ratio sits above 1.0, the average coin being moved is being sold for more than it was purchased. Below 1.0, holders are realizing losses. What the SOPR break actually means The metric comes in several flavors, and each tells a slightly different story. The long-term holder version (LTH-SOPR) tracks coins that have sat dormant for extended periods before moving, while the short-term holder version (STH-SOPR) captures recent buyers. CryptoQuant’s analysis points to a pattern that rhymes with early 2023, when similar SOPR behavior preceded a historic Bitcoin rally. During the 2025-2026 analysis window, the firm observed multiple instances of the STH-SOPR dipping below 0.95 before bouncing back above 1.0. Those rebounds consistently aligned with recovery phases in Bitcoin’s ...