Bitcoin traders cheer April’s historic gains, yet one Fed calendar date could flip this rally overnight

Bitcoin price started April back above $68,000 after a late-March relief rally tied to hopes that the Iran war could move toward de-escalation.

According to CryptoSlate's data, the flagship digital asset gained more than 3% in the last 24 hours to reach as high as $69,170 before retreating to about $68,456 as of press time, as investors weighed whether the bounce marked the start of a more durable recovery or only a temporary release from a bruising first quarter.

The rebound followed a rapid shift in broader market sentiment. Reuters reported that oil prices swung sharply after media reports said Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was prepared to end the war if Tehran received guarantees, while US President Donald Trump said Washington could wind down the conflict within weeks.

Market observers noted that the relief over that possibility helped lift risk assets, including crypto, even as traders continued to price in elevated energy costs and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

Let's look at the factors that could significantly influence Bitcoin's price performance in this new month.

Oil, inflation, and the Fed now sit in the middle of the April trade

The mixed signals from the Middle East indicate that the macro backdrop will continue to do much of the work this month.

Binance Research noted that the US-Iran ceasefire signals could extend the recent crypto recovery, with digital assets like Ethereum likely to outperform if risk appetite improves further.

However, the firm also warned that caution remains necessary because Iranian officials have described the contacts as message exchanges rather than formal negotiations. According to the firm, Israeli war aims remain harder than Washington’s, and threats from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps against major US companies remain a live tail risk.

This view is very important to note, considering the Iran war has driven the steepest increase in oil-price forecasts, with analysts now expecting Brent to average $82.85 a barrel in 2026, up from $63.85 in February.

Notably, Brent and US crude have both gained about 60% since the conflict began, a move that has fed directly into inflation worries and rate repricing across global markets.

That dynamic gives April a heavier macro calendar than usual for Bitcoin traders. The Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar shows the March employment report on April 3, while the Federal Reserve’s April calendar lists minutes from the March 17-18 FOMC meeting on April 8, the Beige Book on April 15, and the next Fed meeting on April 28-29.

Any sign that higher energy costs are feeding through into inflation expectations, or that the Fed is becoming less willing to ease, would complicate the case for crypto's rebound.

Bitcoin enters April with hope and downward protection

Against that backdrop, crypto traders are entering the new month with hope that Bitcoin's historic performance in April will provide a breather.

Data from CoinGlass show that April has often been one of Bitcoin’s better months, with an average return of 33.4% and a median gain of 7.57%.

Bitcoin Monthly Performance in The Last 10 Years (Source: BIT Official)

However, BIT, formerly Matrixport, noted that these patterns have become less reliable in recent years, especially when the asset enters the month with weak momentum.

According to the firm, BTC's Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 47% puts the digital asset closer to last year’s starting point than to the overheated conditions that preceded sharper corrections in earlier cycles.

In practical terms, the firm expects volatility to rise from March’s range-bound trading as investors test whether the latest selloff is stabilizing or widening into a broader reversal.

Crypto traders' positioning in the options market reinforces that view. CME Group said March bitcoin options open interest showed about $660 million in calls against $240 million in puts, a nearly three-to-one ratio that pointed to demand for a recovery into the end of the first quarter.

However, longer-term positioning is more defensive, with the June expiry having more put open interest than calls.

That view aligns with how Bitcoin has traded through the first quarter. The market has shown enough buying interest to reclaim major round numbers after sharp dips, but not enough follow-through to quickly restore confidence.

ETF and institutional flows have softened

This lack of conviction is showing up in the institutional demand for the flagship digital asset.

CoinShares said digital-asset investment products recorded their first outflows in five weeks in the week through March 30, with $414 million leaving the sector. Bitcoin products accounted for $194 million of that total, though they still held a positive year-to-date net inflow position of $964 million.

CoinShares linked the reversal to a more prolonged Iran conflict, higher inflation risk, and a shift in market expectations toward the possibility of rate hikes rather than cuts by June.

Glassnode’s data point in the same direction. The analytics firm said the seven-day moving average of US spot ETF net flows turned negative early last week, with daily net outflows ranging from 200 to 500 Bitcoin.

Bitcoin ETF Demand (Source: Glassnode)

The figures are small compared with the largest inflow weeks seen since spot ETFs launched, but they suggest that institutional demand is no longer acting as a clean stabilizer at current prices.

At the same time, corporate treasury buying has also slowed significantly outside Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, leaving Bitcoin without the same breadth of institutional support that helped sustain earlier rebounds.

With ETF flows softening and treasury demand narrowing, the market enters April with less of a cushion against another bout of macro stress.

How will Bitcoin price perform in April?

Taken together, those factors leave Bitcoin entering April with support in place, but without a clear all-clear signal.

Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, said $66,000 remains the level to watch this month. According to her, a hold there would support a consolidation argument after a volatile quarter, while a break lower would expose Bitcoin to another leg down.

Meanwhile, crypto market maker Wintermute said credible diplomatic progress and oil pulling back toward $100 would leave the short side vulnerable to a squeeze toward $70,000 to $74,000, after which resistance near $74,000 could come into focus if de-escalation holds.

However, a fresh escalation, combined with oil pushing toward $120, would reopen a path toward the low $60,000s, with the high-to-mid $50,000s also back on the table if cycle analogs hold.

Recent CryptoSlate research would suggest that April seasonality offers a weak tailwind but not a signal. Historically strong monthly returns contrast with the broader pattern that years starting from similarly weak Q1 conditions have rarely closed higher, leaving the burden on macro and flows rather than calendar effects.