BlackRock’s Jeff Rosenberg says August jobs beat puts CPI in the hot seat for Fed’s September call

The US labor market just made the Federal Reserve’s job considerably harder. August nonfarm payrolls came in at 162,000, blowing past consensus estimates that had clustered between 56,000 and 65,000 jobs. BlackRock portfolio manager Jeffrey Rosenberg, speaking on Bloomberg Television, was direct about what comes next: the September 11 consumer price index print is now the most consequential data release between now and the Fed’s meeting on September 15 and 16. What the jobs report actually says The headline payrolls figure was striking enough, but the details reinforced the picture. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, a level consistent with a labor market that has not cracked under the weight of elevated interest rates. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, a pace that keeps wage-driven inflation concerns alive. The revisions to July’s data added another layer. An initial reported decline of 23,000 jobs was revised to a net gain of 21,000, a swing of 44,000 that reframes the prior month’s narrative entirely. The market’s immediate reaction tracked exactly what you would expect. Treasury yields moved higher, and implied probabilities of a Se...