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Brent oil prices surged past $105 on an unconfirmed report that Iran’s parliament speaker resigned from the US-Iran negotiation team, pushing the likelihood of crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 to 3.2% YES.
The market’s small move reflects skepticism about the report’s unconfirmed nature. The resignation stirs fears of geopolitical instability that could disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 trades at 3.2% YES, up from 3% yesterday. The market for crude oil hitting $90 by June is also likely to draw more attention, though current data is sparse.
In the uranium stockpile markets, odds for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium by April 30 dropped to 6.1% YES, down from 11% yesterday. The June 30 contract is at 24% YES, and December 31 is at 39.5% YES. These declines suggest traders expect diplomatic channels to stay blocked in the near term.
If confirmed, the resignation suggests the IRGC might be tightening its grip on negotiations, raising the risk of escalation. For traders, the potential for Brent to surge on supply concerns makes this worth watching closely. A YES share in the all-time high market at 3.2¢ pays 31x if it resolves, but that requires prices to push past $120 per barrel imminently.
Watch for official confirmation of the resignation or shifts in the IRGC’s public stance. Statements from Trump or Khamenei on negotiation progress could also move these markets fast.
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