Ceasefire odds plummet after US F-15E downed, April 7 now at 1% YES

4 hours ago 1

Trump dismissed Iran’s military strength, but the downing of a U.S. F-15E complicates the narrative. Ceasefire by April 7 sits at a mere 1% YES, down from 12% a week ago.

The incident undermines U.S. air dominance claims, with the market responding by slashing odds for an imminent ceasefire. Traders are eyeing April 15 at 6% YES, and April 30 at 18% YES — both significantly lower than last week’s figures. The F-15E downing marks a pivotal point, suggesting Iran’s defensive capabilities remain intact despite previous setbacks.

April 7’s market is effectively dead, hovering at just 1% with four days left. April 15’s 6% and April 30’s 18% present a more interesting term structure. The biggest jump, a 19-point increase from April 30 to May 31, implies traders foresee a potential catalyst in late April or early May.

The ceasefire market’s daily volumes show where the action really is. With $430,773 in actual USDC traded across all sub-markets, liquidity remains robust. However, the $12,367 required to move April 7 by 5 points indicates a thin order book — a single large order could shift it.

Trump’s hawkish rhetoric and the recent military escalation suggest a genuine setback for ceasefire prospects. The contrarian view? At 1¢, a YES share for April 7 pays $1 if talks resume — a 100x return. But the odds are slim unless a significant diplomatic shift occurs within four days.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM and any intermediary efforts by Oman or Qatar. These could sway the odds if diplomatic channels open up before the April 7 deadline.