Ceasefire odds plummet amid ongoing US-Iran tensions and military escalation: FT

2 hours ago 1

Israel intercepts most missiles, but Iran continues its aggression. Ceasefire by April 7 is at 1.8% YES, down from 8% yesterday.

The ongoing conflict has pummeled the odds of a near-term ceasefire. April 7 odds are negligible, and April 15 sits at just 8.5% YES, down from 18% a day ago. The trajectory suggests traders aren’t holding their breath for peace talks soon. The April 30 market shows some optimism at 23.5% YES, but that’s a far cry from the 40% it held 24 hours earlier.

The U.S. deployment of additional forces, including paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division, has also affected related markets. Odds for U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 are not detailed here, but the implication is clear: traders see increased likelihood of ground operations. This is reflected in the term structure where the biggest jump occurs between April 30 and May 31, a 22-point increase, hinting at potential escalations or negotiations within that timeframe.

Market volume is at $535,634 across all ceasefire sub-markets, with April 7 seeing $48,791. The order book depth suggests it takes $25,858 to move the price by 5 points for April 7, indicating a market susceptible to swings by relatively modest capital.

The current news of missile interceptions and continued Iranian attacks is a bearish signal for a ceasefire. This isn’t just noise; it’s a structured military campaign with no signs of de-escalation. At 2¢, a YES share for April 7 offers a theoretical payout of $1 if a ceasefire occurs, but for that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in a rapid diplomatic breakthrough in five days. Until tangible diplomatic actions occur, such as intermediary involvement or softened rhetoric, these markets will remain suppressed.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM or Secretary Rubio. Trump’s upcoming addresses could also sway markets if he hints at talks or escalations.