Ceasefire odds plummet to 1% as Iran vows retaliation against Israel

Iran has warned of retaliation following Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure, while Iran targets Gulf sites. Ceasefire odds for April 7 have plummeted to 1% YES, down from 12% last week.

The ongoing military exchanges between Iran and Israel, with Iran also hitting Gulf targets, have sharply reduced ceasefire prospects. The April 7 market now stands at 1% YES, a steep decline from 12% a week ago. Traders see minimal chances for a ceasefire amid escalating tensions and Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The April 15 market is at 6% YES, indicating skepticism about a near-term resolution. The April 30 market has dropped to 18% YES from 24% yesterday, reflecting growing pessimism about diplomatic progress this month.

Trading data shows significant skepticism. The April 7 market sees volume at $22,948 daily, with a $12,352 order book depth to shift the price 5 points. The largest recent move was a 2-point spike in the April 30 market, as some traders hedge against a late April resolution.

These strikes aim to cripple economic capabilities, complicating ceasefire prospects. Betting on a ceasefire is risky: at 1¢ per YES share for April 7, it pays $1 if resolved, a gamble for only the most optimistic.

Watch for diplomatic moves from Oman or Qatar. Trump’s next briefing, particularly any negotiation mentions, could shift odds. Without that, expect continued bearish sentiment.

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