CFTC sends prediction market rules to the White House for review

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission wants the final word on prediction markets. It just sent the White House two rules to help make that happen. On September 30, 2026, the CFTC submitted a pair of event contract rules to the White House Office of Management and Budget for review. Together, they amount to the agency’s clearest attempt yet to claim prediction markets as federal territory, not state turf. The timing is not subtle. Several states are fighting the agency in court over whether sports-linked contracts are just gambling in a trench coat. Two rules, one message The first measure is a proposed rule. It would amend the regulatory definition of a “swap” so that it explicitly covers event contracts, the yes-or-no products that prediction markets run on. Why does the swap label matter? Swaps fall under the Commodity Exchange Act, the federal law the CFTC administers. Writing event contracts into that definition would anchor them more firmly inside the agency’s rulebook. The second measure is an interim final rule, and it cuts the other way. It would exclude “casino-style gambling products” from being classified as swaps at all. An interim final rule is an unusual tool for t...