Chicago Fed projects US retail sales fell 0.3% in May, marking seventh decline in nine months

American consumers are pulling back, and it’s becoming a pattern. The Chicago Federal Reserve’s preliminary CARTS report, released June 8, projects that US retail and food services sales excluding autos declined 0.3% in May on a seasonally adjusted basis.

That’s the seventh decline in just nine months.

The numbers behind the slowdown

The CARTS projection, which stands for Advance Retail Trade Summary, aggregates high-frequency data from payment card transactions, retail foot traffic, gasoline sales, and consumer sentiment to estimate retail activity before the official government figures drop. It uses a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model that incorporates Census Bureau data alongside private-sector sources like Bloomberg, Consumer Edge, and SafeGraph foot traffic data.

Real retail sales, meaning the amount consumers actually bought after stripping out price changes, are projected to have fallen 1.3% in May.

This comes after April posted a 0.5% growth figure. May’s projected decline suggests that April was the exception, not the rule.

The official US Census Bureau advance retail sales report is scheduled for June 17.

Why seven out of nine months matters

Retail sales serve as one of the most direct proxies for consumer health. Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of US GDP, so when people consistently spend less, the implications ripple through the entire economy.

The 1.3% real decline is particularly telling. Nominal sales falling 0.3% while inflation-adjusted sales drop 1.3% means that whatever spending is happening, it’s being eaten by higher prices.

What this means for crypto and risk assets

Weakening consumer spending feeds directly into Federal Reserve decision-making. Persistent declines in retail activity could push the Fed toward a more accommodative stance, potentially cutting rates or at least holding off on any tightening.

The Chicago Fed’s projection is out, but the official Census data won’t land until June 17. For crypto investors specifically, the key variable is whether this spending weakness eventually translates into monetary policy action. The June 17 Census release will be the next major data point worth watching, not just for the headline number but for any revisions to prior months that might reshape the trajectory.

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