CLARITY Act odds fall to 34% as Senate delays vote

Prediction markets are lowering the chances of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 as the Senate turns to Russia sanctions and federal nominations before its August recess. Summary Polymarket traders place the bill’s 2026 passage odds at about 34%, down from 53% on July 21. Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn estimates a 30% chance of passage, citing vote math and limited floor time. Republicans may need support from at least 10 Democrats if three GOP senators remain unavailable or opposed. Bitcoin traded near $63,800 as regulatory uncertainty added to broader pressure across crypto markets. CLARITY Act loses its place on the Senate schedule Senate Majority Leader John Thune has not scheduled immediate action on the CLARITY Act, narrowing the path for the crypto market structure bill before lawmakers leave Washington. The Senate is instead moving forward with federal nominations and legislation imposing sanctions on Russia and Iran. Preliminary action on the crypto bill remains possible during the week of Aug. 3, but the chamber is scheduled to begin its summer recess after Aug. 7. According to Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn, the timetable has become the main threat to passage...