CoinGecko study finds altcoin traders outperform large cap traders, but there’s a catch

A new CoinGecko study spanning seven years of on-chain data reveals that altcoin traders consistently posted median profits several times larger than those who stuck to major tokens. The catch: that amplification cuts both ways, and the broader picture for retail DEX trading looks genuinely grim. The report, titled “Trading Majors vs. Altcoins: Ethereum DEX Trader Profitability, 2020-2026,” analyzed approximately 200 Ethereum-tradeable tokens derived from the top 500 by 2026 market cap, excluding stablecoins. It split wallets into two camps: “Majors-Only” traders who stuck to the top 10 tokens by market cap, and “Altcoins” traders who ventured into tokens ranked 11 through 200. The amplification effect Across six of the seven years studied, altcoin traders posted median profit-and-loss outcomes between 3 and 6.6 times those of their majors-only counterparts. In 2021, the best year for both groups, majors traders recorded a median PnL of $339.21 while altcoin traders hit $2,016.02, roughly six times larger. In 2022, majors traders posted a median loss of $222.18. Altcoin traders lost $733.03, about 3.3 times worse. Perhaps the most striking statistical finding was the 0.975 correlat...