Crypto Fear Gauge Hits Extreme Level Even As Traders Bet On Relief Rally

Bitcoin’s fear gauge plunged back into “Extreme Fear” on Wednesday — the same day traders flooded social media with bullish calls following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady.

Sentiment Shoots Up Despite Grim Market Signals

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a widely tracked measure of overall market mood, had briefly climbed into plain “Fear” territory the day before, only to reverse course hours later.

Yet traders appeared unfazed. According to sentiment platform Santiment, bullish chatter on social media spiked hard after the Fed announced it would keep rates unchanged at 3.5–3.75%.

The platform’s social media discussion score shot from roughly nine to 71 within hours of the announcement.

Source: Alternative.me

Bitcoin itself told a different story. It was trading at around $70,150 at the time of the Fed’s announcement, down more than 4% in the prior 24 hours.

🇺🇸 Today’s FOMC meeting has resulted in the expected outcome of interest rates holding steady at 3.50-3.75%. There is an expectation that there will be one further cut sometime in 2026, and one in 2027.

📈 For now, traders are expecting a bullish relief rally in spite of no… pic.twitter.com/oBqLTcv3Ni

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) March 18, 2026

Traders See Rate Hold As A Window For Gains

Santiment attributed the surge in positive sentiment to a simple shift in trader thinking. The bearish price action tied to the absence of rate cuts had already played out a day earlier, the platform said, leaving room for traders to reframe the unchanged rate decision as a net positive.

Holding rates steady, the logic goes, at least keeps the door open for cuts down the road.

Fed policy has long shaped how crypto market participants read the broader economic environment. Rate cuts, in particular, are seen as fuel for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Reports indicate traders had been watching the Fed’s moves closely throughout 2025 as a potential trigger for a bull run that never fully materialized.

BTCUSD now trading at $70,228. Chart: TradingView

The S&P 500 has shed 3.70% over the past 30 days, according to Google Finance data, adding pressure to an already skittish crypto market.

Analysts Warn A False Rally Could Be Taking Shape

Not everyone is buying the optimism. Onchain analysts warned that what looks like an uptrend could be a bull trap — a false signal that draws buyers in before prices reverse lower.

Some market observers expect Bitcoin and the broader market to stage a sharp rally once equities find a floor. Others made a similar call earlier this week, saying on X that a “massive rally” is coming in the months ahead.

The divide among analysts reflects how unsettled conditions remain. Social media buzz has spiked, but the fear index says something else entirely. Whether the rally traders are counting on shows up — or fades before it starts — remains an open question.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView