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The crypto market cap jumped $120 billion within 10 hours of Trump announcing a two-week US-Iran ceasefire. Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, is now at 35% YES, up from 30% a week ago.
The geopolitical de-escalation lifted risk assets including crypto. The Bitcoin $100,000 market moved to 35% YES on recent trades. The Bitcoin $150,000 market sits at 9% YES.
Trading volume on the $100K target hit $3,520 in USDC. The order book shows it would take $3,463 to move the odds 5 points, which indicates decent market thickness. The largest single move was a 1-point spike at 11:31 PM.
The ceasefire reduces the immediate risk of a broader conflict, which had been weighing on risk assets including Bitcoin. A YES share at 35¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $100,000, a 2.86x return. Traders should weigh this against potential regulatory actions or macroeconomic shifts that could change the trajectory.
Watch for changes in the Strait of Hormuz situation or further diplomatic talks. Institutional moves like ETF inflows or regulatory decisions could also affect Bitcoin’s path to $100,000.
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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy.
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