Crypto’s resilience tested as oil rises after Iran strikes, Fed indicates rates could still rise

The global financial landscape is reacting to a series of geopolitical and economic developments. Oil prices have surged following recent Iranian strikes, while the Federal Reserve has indicated that interest rates may still increase, posing challenges for the cryptocurrency market. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have seen significant price movements, between $87 and $93 and $81 and $85 per barrel, respectively. Meanwhile, the Fed’s stance on rates reflects a potential hawkish shift, influencing expectations around future monetary policy. These factors have contributed to a testing environment for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which are sensitive to both energy price shocks and changes in interest rate expectations. Key Takeaways Rising oil prices appear consistent with increased expectations that crude oil could reach new all-time highs by December 31, now priced at 14.5% YES. The Fed’s indication of potential rate hikes suggests a decreased likelihood of rate cuts in 2026, with markets now pricing a 90% YES probability for no cuts. The resilience of cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, is being tested in the face of macroeconomic pressures from both oil ma...