1 hour ago
1
The DOJ has ended its investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, removing the main obstacle to Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as his successor. Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 is at 85% YES, up from 29% just 24 hours ago.
The 56-percentage-point jump on the May 15 contract to 85% tracks the Senate’s ability to move forward now that the probe is closed. The June 30 market sits at 98.2% YES, pricing in near-certainty of eventual confirmation with less time pressure. The May 1 contract is at 1.7% YES, given the near-impossibility of immediate confirmation.
The May 15 move was backed by $17,756 in USDC volume, with an order book requiring $1,590 to shift the price 5 percentage points. That depth points to committed positioning rather than thin-market noise. The largest single move was a 20-point spike, likely triggered directly by the DOJ announcement.
The Powell investigation was the specific reason Senator Thom Tillis had blocked the confirmation vote. With that gone, Warsh’s path to the Fed Chair is straightforward. Warsh has taken crypto-friendly positions, so his confirmation could shift Fed policy toward digital assets, though his hawkish inflation stance may limit how far that goes. At 85¢, a YES share pays $1 for a 1.18x return. That bet requires confidence in a smooth confirmation process over the next three weeks.
Watch for Senate Banking Committee scheduling and any statements from Tillis confirming his block is lifted. A scheduled confirmation hearing for Warsh would be the clearest bullish signal.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
English (US) · 