Dollar steadies after US strikes on Iran as markets brace for inflation data

The US dollar found its footing near a dollar index score of 100 on June 10, 2026, showing remarkable composure for a currency whose government just launched military strikes against Iran. Investors, meanwhile, shifted into a familiar posture: one eye on the Middle East, the other on an inflation report that could matter even more.

The strikes came in response to Iran’s downing of a US Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most strategically vital chokepoints for global oil transit. Oil prices climbed on the news, and Bitcoin dropped roughly 2% to below $62,000, following the well-worn playbook where digital assets sell off when geopolitical risk spikes and traders reach for the exits.

What happened in the markets

The greenback’s stability also reflects something else entirely. Traders are positioning for US inflation data that could arrive with some uncomfortable numbers baked in. Higher energy prices from Middle East tensions feed directly into consumer price readings, and those readings feed directly into what the Federal Reserve does next with interest rates.

Bitcoin’s reaction was more immediate and less nuanced. A 2% decline to below $62,000 put the largest cryptocurrency squarely in the “risk-off” category for the day. This pattern has repeated itself throughout 2025 and into 2026, with digital assets experiencing sharp but often short-lived selloffs during geopolitical flare-ups involving the US and Iran.

The crypto market got an additional jolt from a separate but related development: the US seized approximately $450 million in Iranian crypto assets as part of broader enforcement actions.

The inflation wildcard

Oil prices rising on the back of Strait of Hormuz tensions have a cascading effect through the economy. Transportation costs increase. Manufacturing inputs get more expensive. Those costs eventually show up in consumer prices, which is exactly what the inflation report will attempt to measure.

What this means for crypto investors

The seizure of $450 million in Iranian crypto assets adds a layer of regulatory and enforcement risk that is specific to digital currencies. It demonstrates that governments can and will use blockchain’s transparency against sanctioned entities.

The rapid price swings seen during prior US-Iran incidents in 2025 and 2026 suggest that volatility clustering is a real phenomenon in crypto during geopolitical events. Short-term selloffs have tended to be followed by recoveries, but the speed and magnitude of those swings create genuine risk for leveraged positions. Traders running tight stop-losses during these episodes have historically been whipsawed out of positions right before reversals.

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