Epoch AI study finds China more exposed to semiconductor supply shocks than US

If the global chip supply chain seized up tomorrow, both superpowers would feel it. According to new analysis from Epoch AI, China would feel it more. Epoch AI modeled what happens to each economy when the flow of semiconductors gets disrupted. The conclusion is directional and clear: China comes out worse on both cost and economic damage. China remains heavily dependent on imports for advanced semiconductor tools and materials. Those are the expensive, hard-to-replicate machines and inputs needed to make cutting-edge chips. US export controls make that dependence more painful. Washington has spent recent years restricting what China can buy, so a supply shock would land on a system that is already constrained. Epoch AI’s broader work on chip supply chains has flagged three major bottlenecks in AI hardware: advanced logic wafers, CoWoS, and high-bandwidth memory, or HBM. Logic wafers are the silicon brains of a chip. CoWoS is an advanced packaging technique that stitches components together. HBM is the ultra-fast memory that keeps AI processors fed with data. Lose any one of them, and the finished product doesn’t ship. The smuggling side of the story An Epoch AI report published Ap...