European diesel prices climb on potential US export ban

European diesel markets went into overdrive on September 23, with crack spreads, the premium refiners earn for turning crude oil into diesel, surging past $95 per barrel. That’s the highest level since 2011, and it happened for a reason that would have seemed far-fetched even a few months ago: the prospect that the US might simply stop sending diesel abroad. President Trump backed the consideration of a diesel export ban on September 22, and European traders responded the way you’d expect when your biggest backup supplier starts talking about pulling the plug. US diesel futures moved in the opposite direction, weakening as the market priced in the possibility of a domestic glut. The supply math that makes this so painful Europe has been a net diesel importer for years. That dependency deepened considerably after sanctions on Russian energy began in 2022, pushing European buyers to find alternative sources. The US stepped into that gap in a big way. American diesel exports hit 1.6 million barrels per day in August 2026, a record. Europe absorbed a significant chunk of that volume, making US refineries a critical node in the continent’s energy supply chain. The timing couldn’t be wor...