Exxon, Chevron warn of sustained high fuel prices amid refining disruptions

ExxonMobil and Chevron have issued warnings that global fuel prices are likely to remain elevated due to significant disruptions in refining capacity caused by conflicts in Russia and the Middle East. The companies highlighted that nearly 9% of global refining capacity has been affected, contributing to a tighter supply of key products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. This situation is exacerbated by Russia’s diesel export ban and ongoing refinery outages, which have maintained upward pressure on fuel prices despite crude oil prices returning to pre-war levels. Market activity suggests that these developments could influence crude oil price predictions. Currently, the likelihood of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30 is priced at 5.1% YES, while the probability for December 31 stands at 14.5% YES. The recent warnings from Exxon and Chevron appear to align with scenarios where constrained refining capacity could drive oil prices higher, impacting market expectations. The situation is drawing attention from key industry figures such as OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. Their insights, along with geopoliti...