F-15E reportedly shot down in Iran, raising speculation of US ground operation

by Estefano Gomez · Just now ago

A U.S. F-15E was reportedly shot down in Iran, raising speculation about a U.S. ground operation. The market for U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 has jumped to 66% YES, up from 55% yesterday.

This event has caused prediction market volatility. The April 30 market rose 11 points, indicating increased trader belief in a U.S. ground presence soon. The December 31 market also climbed to 74.5% YES, suggesting expectations of longer-term involvement. The March 31 market remains low at 0.1% YES, indicating no immediate action.

The Pentagon denies the F-15E loss, but ongoing rescue efforts suggest potential military escalation. The market’s term structure shows a 9-point increase between April and December, reflecting anticipated developments.

Volume at $2,744,246 in the past 24 hours shows strong market activity. The April 30 sub-market’s depth requires $185,131 to shift odds by 5 points, indicating institutional interest. A 6-point price drop at 1:12 AM responded to conflicting reports.

Traders betting on U.S. entry into Iran by April 30 see a 1.5x payout at 66¢ per YES share. This bet assumes U.S. ground forces will respond within 28 days. Watch for Pentagon statements or confirmation of special ops inside Iran for critical shifts.

Monitor Secretary of Defense Hegseth’s briefings and any Congressional War Powers actions. CENTCOM’s next update could change the narrative.

Markets Impacted

• US forces enter Iran by March 31? — currently 0.1% YES
• US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 65.5% YES
• US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 74.5% YES

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