Fed Meeting Today: Traders Price a 95% Hold and a 79% December Hike. What Does It Mean for Crypto?

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00% when its two-day Fed meeting ends on Wednesday, October 28, as officials weigh 3.7% inflation against a weakening job market six days before the U.S. midterms. Polymarket traders give a hold 94.9% odds ahead of the 2 p.m. ET statement. The decision itself is mostly priced in. December isn’t: the same markets see a 79% chance of another hike then, so crypto traders will be watching Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. more than the statement. Bitcoin trades at $81,430, up 1.9% in 24 hours. Fed Decision in October DISCOVER: Best Meme Coins to Buy in 2026 What Are the Rate Odds for the Fed Meeting? A hold is close to certain, and the betting is now on December. Prediction markets, futures and economists line up: Source Hold today Hike today Hike in December Polymarket 94.9% 4.8% 78.8% Kalshi 96% 5% 79% CME FedWatch (futures) Above 90% – 73% Reuters poll of economists 94 of 100 – – Polymarket’s October market alone has drawn $86 million in bets. Its most likely three-meeting path, at 59%, is a hold today, a hike in December and a hold in January. The December figures add the 25 and 50 basis-point hik...