Fed rate hike odds fall to 38% as Waller awaits CPI

September rate-hike odds have fallen to 38% on Polymarket after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said cooling August inflation could persuade him to support holding rates steady. Summary Polymarket priced a 38% chance of a September rate hike after Waller’s remarks. Waller said a hot August inflation report could lead him to support tighter policy. August PPI and CPI figures are scheduled for Sept. 10 and Sept. 11, respectively. The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its rate decision on Sept. 16. Waller makes August CPI the Fed rate hike test The Federal Reserve said in Waller’s published remarks on Sept. 3 that his decision at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting would depend heavily on the next inflation report. With employment near what Waller called its maximum sustainable level, he said inflation has continued to move slowly toward the central bank’s 2% goal. Another jobs report and a fresh inflation reading will arrive before officials meet on Sept. 15–16. Waller does not expect the employment report to differ greatly from recent labor data. Instead, the August inflation figures will carry more weight in deciding whether he supports keeping...