Fed rate hike odds hit 72% as Barr warns on inflation

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr has backed a decisive interest rate increase if inflation fails to ease, as Polymarket traders place the chance of a 2026 hike at 72%. Summary Barr said the Fed should raise rates decisively if inflation does not moderate enough. Polymarket traders assign a 72% chance to at least one rate increase in 2026. A separate contract places the probability of a September quarter-point hike at 57%. CPI, PPI and employment data could affect the Fed’s Sept. 15–16 decision. Barr supports a Fed rate hike if inflation stays high The Federal Reserve said in Barr’s Sept. 1 prepared remarks that inflation remains too high after more than five years above the central bank’s goal, leaving policymakers to decide whether current rates are restrictive enough. Speaking at the Second Chance Lending Forum in Washington, Barr said the Fed has time to review the data before its Sept. 15–16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. His position depends on whether upcoming reports provide clear evidence that price growth is returning toward the central bank’s 2% target. “If trends in the data give me some confidence that inflation is moderating on a path to 2 percent, then I ...