Fed Rate Polymarket Odds Point to an October Hold

Bitcoin may get a short break from rate pressure this month. Fed rate Polymarket odds now give an 81% chance that the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at its October 27–28 meeting, up 32 points, while the odds of a 25-basis-point hike have dropped 28 points to 20%. The catch is December: traders still see a 76% chance of a hike at the December 8–9 meeting, which keeps the risk of higher yields, tighter liquidity, and renewed volatility firmly on the table. That makes October less of a pause and more of a timing shift. The analytical question is no longer only whether October produces a hold; it is whether incoming data keeps that expectation intact through December. October hold pricing is a market snapshot, not a Federal Reserve forecast. Inflation takes center stage this week. US CPI is expected to rise to 3.7% YoY on Wednesday, up from 3.4%, while core inflation is forecast at 2.5%. Thursday brings PPI and retail sales, offering a closer look at price pressures and consumer demand. With the labor market… pic.twitter.com/CTvaZRxNDz — Coinbase Markets 🛡️ (@CoinbaseMarkets) October 12, 2026 Put Your Money Where Your Mouth is On PolymarketFed Rate Polymarket Odds: October Hold...