Fed study finds Bitcoin returns can spur crypto buying

Information about Bitcoin’s previous gains can change how much cryptocurrency U.S. households want to own and whether they subsequently buy it, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper published on July 14, 2026. Summary Crypto owners expected 22% annual returns, compared with 7% among surveyed people without digital holdings. Bitcoin return information raised desired crypto allocations by roughly two percentage points in randomized testing. Actual crypto purchases subsequently increased about 2.5 percentage points among households shown Bitcoin performance information. Expected returns and perceived risks explained ownership differences better than age, income, gender or wealth. Working paper findings represent the authors’ research and do not establish official Federal Reserve policy. Researchers Michael Weber, Bernardo Candia, Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko examined recurring surveys containing between 15,000 and 25,000 responses per wave. The surveys drew participants from the Nielsen Homescan Panel and included a randomized information experiment conducted during the second quarter of 2025. The paper found that households shown Bitcoin’s trailing...