Federal Reserve’s Chris Waller inclined to keep rates on hold

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has made his position clear: interest rates are staying put, at least for now. In remarks delivered on May 22, 2026, Waller stated that he favors holding the federal funds rate steady for the near term, a stance that marks a meaningful pivot from the more accommodative posture he held just months earlier. The shift matters because Waller is not a peripheral voice at the Fed. Appointed to the Board of Governors by President Trump in 2020, he carries real weight in rate deliberations. What changed Waller’s mind Two forces are driving his current caution: tariff-fueled inflation and energy price pressures tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict. His threshold for reconsidering is explicit. Waller wants to see several months of lower core inflation readings before he would even begin thinking about cuts. Perhaps the most striking element of his May remarks was the framing of probabilities. Waller indicated that the odds of a rate cut are now roughly equal to the odds of a rate hike, depending on where inflation data lands. A notable reversal from January Waller’s current stance reads very differently from where he stood at the start of 2026....