Federal Reserve’s September decision could impact Micron’s earnings more than its own results

Micron Technology is about to post what could be its biggest quarter ever, with roughly $50 billion in projected fiscal Q4 revenue. But the number that matters most for the stock might not come from Micron’s own earnings call. It might come from a conference room at the Federal Reserve building in Washington, D.C., two weeks earlier. The FOMC is scheduled to meet September 15-16, 2026, and the outcome of that gathering will ripple through the entire semiconductor sector before Micron even opens its books on September 30. The rate picture is messy The federal funds rate currently sits between 3.50% and 3.75%, held steady after a July 29 meeting that was anything but unanimous. The vote was 9-3 to maintain rates, with three dissenters pushing for a 25 basis point hike. Their argument: inflation remains sticky, and geopolitical energy volatility keeps adding fuel to the fire. Market-implied probabilities for a rate hike at the September meeting have been swinging between 35% and 66%. That’s a remarkably wide range for a decision less than a month away, and it reflects the tug-of-war between softening economic indicators and inflation that refuses to fully cooperate with the Fed’s targ...